With new evidence coming every day that Earth’s climate is changing due to human activities, it is now time for every citizen to understand what repercussions will come. For example, recent studies show that the majority of California’s water resources are depleted due to overuse from agriculture, and farming has taken a significant setback. Many residents have been displaced by the wildfires, and the predicted increasing temperatures will only worsen the situation [1]. As bad as this may seem for countries similar to the United States, developing nations, especially in Africa and the Middle East, will be far worse off-- these are regions where high levels of the population rely on their own agriculture for food, and will have a much harder time adapting to changing temperatures. 

In Africa, countries such as Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali, and Chad have been identified as nations that have high vulnerability towards droughts due to existing issues such as current basin levels and infrastructure/development, and an exacerbation of their water depletion problems isn’t too far into the future. Violent disputes over freshwater issues have not been uncommon over the past century, particularly in the water-scarce region of the Middle East. Africa is no stranger to water conflicts as well-- the Nile drainage basin has provoked hostilities between the nations which rely on it (mainly Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia). 

In addition to providing necessary agricultural irrigation to feed people, the river presents opportunities for hydroelectric energy.  Recently, the conflict has started over the construction of the largest dam in Africa, Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) [2]. Over 200 million people rely on water from the basin, and Ethiopia enjoys the upriver advantage that allows them to maximize the energy gained from the river. Egypt relies heavily on the water supplied by the Nile, and they have threatened force against Ethiopia if they go through with the plans to develop GERD along the Sudanese border. Military conflict has not yet occurred because “domestic instability, economic crisis, and the dependency on foreign aid, Egypt could not justify costly military operations that threaten the Nile construction works by Ethiopia” [2]. Even though the conflict has yet to escalate, the possibility still exists as water becomes increasingly essential in the region. 

The idea of water as a catalyst for conflict can sometimes be hard to grasp, especially when many nations are blessed with easy access to fresh water. Unfortunately, scientists say that this will not last forever. Global freshwater depletion is a tragic consequence of abysmal resource mismanagement and climate change, and will be felt by even the most secure countries as the problem worsens into the future. Countries with pre-existing risk to drought could face the potential for serious humanitarian risks, forcing the conservation of water resources to the top of the list for these nations. Ethiopia's impetus to hastily construct GERD, even with Egypt threatening force is one example. In regions where international conflict is not uncommon, the prioritization of vital interests such as food and water security only increases the potential for violence, and water conflicts may become commonplace in the future. 

Written by Alexander Cox 

References:

1. Chung, Francis, et al. “Averting a California Water Crisis.” Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, vol. 128, no. 4, July 2002, p. 237. EBSCOhost, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2002)128:4(237).

2. Singha, Sutandra. “Environmental Politics: A Case Study of Hydropolitics Between Egypt and Ethiopia Over the Nile River Basin.” Geopolitics of Energy, vol. 39, no. 1, Jan. 2017, pp. 2–10. EBSCOhost.

3. Wheeler, K.G., Jeuland, M., Hall, J.W. et al. Understanding and managing new risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Nat Commun 11, 5222 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x